Why So Few Bluebirds In ’21 ?

[mark]

Bluebird trail with at least a dozen nest boxes over the past 8 years (west Twin Cities), but only two nesting pairs this year. Have any other areas–states experienced a dramatic decline in nesting bluebirds this year?

Zip-a-dee doo-dah, zip-a-dee-ay ... www.youtube.com/watch?v=eoEojphw7kk

[Carol – Mid-Mo.]

Hi, Mark and welcome to this Bluebird forum. Most people here this year had pretty good nestings overall. But it will vary differently from area to area, from year to year. Sorry you did not have as good a season as usual. Personally, I had 3 nestings with the same two parents, and fledged 14 I believe it was, two nests of 5 and one nest of 4. These two parents were a new pair this year for me, so things went a little differently than usual, but overall it was a good year. All we can do is journal our different seasons and if we see something extremely different, to check and see what we had done last season. I have to write it down on paper to keep everything straight!

[mark]

Carol – Mid-Mo. wrote:

Most people here this year had pretty good nestings overall. But it will vary differently from area to area, from year to year.

Minnesota BBers had significant declines from 2020 (some as high as 70%) with my decline being 54% from 2020. Our Twin Cities county coordinator recently stated that there were “hundreds of thousands” of EABL deaths in February due to the freezing temps in SE states.

If on average (among ten reporting states) there were on average 5,000 fewer fledgings reported in ten “active reporting” states compared to 2020 could be interpreted to mean 1,000 fewer mating pairs (2,000 BBs). Estimate 8,000 fewer eggs (some with two broods), and a decline of 5,000 fewer fledges. Five thousand times 10 states equals 50,000 fewer EABLs in just ten states. Double that due to similar losses in another ten states and likely at least 100,000 dead EABLs due to Feb freezing in SE.

Would be of some interest if other “active” members from as many as ten “active reporting” states could post on this thread the perentage of decline in their fledging numbers from 2020 to fledges in 2021.

Even if just five members could post the decline in numbers for their state from 2020 to 2021 it would give us some idea how long it may take to rebound to 2020 fledge numbers. Thus, the importance in doing everything we can in 2022 to optimize the number of BB fledges.

Thanks, Mark

• This reply was modified 3 years ago by mark.

Zip-a-dee doo-dah, zip-a-dee-ay ... www.youtube.com/watch?v=eoEojphw7kk

[mark]

Correction of quoted portion posted again below …

(1,000 fewer mating pairs (2,000 BBs). Double that due to similar losses in another ten states and likely at least 100,000 dead EABLs due to Feb freezing in SE.

Rough average estimate would be decline of say 1,000 mating pairs or 10,000 pairs (20,000 BBs)in just ten states for an average decline of 50,000 (not 100,000) EABL fledges in just ten states or on average a decline of 5,000 fledges in ten of the most “actively reporting” EABL northerly states.

Would be interested in northerly state EABL 2021 fledging reports comparing decline numbers from 2020.

Thanks Again, Mark

Zip-a-dee doo-dah, zip-a-dee-ay ... www.youtube.com/watch?v=eoEojphw7kk

[mark]

Oh So Sorry for this third attempt to correct previous post as could only edit once. Hpefully … “the Third Time is the charm” … will correct the previous confusion (my fault) between number of EABL deaths in ’21 and resulting number of EABL fledges in ’21 …

Rough average estimate would be decline of say 1,000 mating pairs or 10,000 pairs (20,000 BBs)in just ten states for an average decline of 50,000 (not 100,000) EABL fledges in just ten states or on average a decline of 5,000 fledges in ten of the most “actively reporting” EABL northerly states.

TO CLARIFY SHOULD HAVE READ …

“Rough average estimate would be decline of say 1000 mating pairs in each of ten “actively reporting” states figuring a loss of at least 8000 fewer eggs (some nextboxes with two brood) per state resulting (we’ll estimate) in 5,000 fewer fledges reported in at least five “actively reporting” EABL northern states in 2021 compared to that states’ fledges in 2020.”

Should mention that our MN county coordinator mentioned that Indiana didn’t notice a significant EABL fledging decline because many of Indianas’ EABLs winter-over so fleddging numbers weren’t affected as more northerly states where there EABLs winter-over in SE states.

Would be interested in any northern 2021 state EABL reports comparing decline in EABL fledges from 2020.

Zip-a-dee doo-dah, zip-a-dee-ay ... www.youtube.com/watch?v=eoEojphw7kk

[David in Stafford,VA]

Hi Mark and welcome to the forum. I collected data from members of the forum for this year’s nesting activity. It is posted down the discussions page with the title “Bluebird Numbers (all nests) update”

David
Stafford, VA

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